Mid-Year Market Check-In: Navigating Volatility Without Losing Focus
- Jake Buckwalter
- 23 hours ago
- 2 min read
Updated: 9 minutes ago
Timeless Wisdom
One of my favorite investors of all time, Peter Lynch, who ran the famous Fidelity Magellan fund in the 70s and 80s and averaged 29%, said famously, “ If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes", which means when investing focus on what you are buying, your risk tolerance, your timeframe and IGNORE THE NOISE! This is good advice. I know I have written about this previously, but it cannot be said enough: do not change your investment strategy based on the economic outlook. Stay the course. And for what it’s worth, Peter Lynch’s Magellan fund doubled the performance of the S&P 500 while he managed it.
A Look at the Numbers: 2025 Mid-Year Returns
With that being said, overall returns have been volatile, but they have been good. As of the writing of this article, the S&P 500 is up 8.1%, the Nasdaq is up 9.1%, the Dow Jones is up 5%, the Russell is up 2.3% and MSCI EAFE is up 20%. We experienced some volatility earlier in the year due to potential tariff implementations. MSCI EAFE, or international stocks, has been the most significant contributor to returns this year. This is a welcome phenomenon because international returns have significantly lagged domestic returns for more than a decade. The Russell 2000 has again lagged larger US stocks; this is not a new trend. The Russell had a huge boom post-COVID in 2020, rolled over, and had a terrible 2022, sluggishly fighting its way back ever since. We have not given up on our small-cap friends. A tailwind for small-cap stocks could be lower interest rates, but again, we have no idea when, or if, the Fed will lower rates.
Large-cap growth has again been driven significantly by large-cap tech names; Nvidia, Microsoft, and Facebook have done well, but not all names have participated. Apple is down 14% and TSLA is down 20% or more—another reason to diversify.
Long-Term Focus, Long-Term Gains
Overall, our strategy remains unchanged; we believe in diversification and a long-term approach to investing. Volatility is the price that investors pay for good returns. There will be ups and downs along the way, but that is normal.
If you would like to discuss your portfolio further or review your financial plan for the remainder of the year, please reach out to your financial advisor today to schedule a meeting. They can help answer questions and discuss strategies to help you reach your financial goals.